1-3 July 2021
Europe/Warsaw timezone

Sociophysics: what was right with my failed prediction of a 2020 Trump victory?

1 Jul 2021, 16:00


Invited talk (40 min) S3


Serge Galam (CEVIPOF, SciencesPo and CNRS)


Applying the Galam model of opinion dynamics to predict the outcome of the November 2020 US presidential election, I concluded on Trump victory at the edge. My prediction has failed. On the one hand, a massive Biden victory would have meant my failure was significant implying to revisit the basic elements of the model to find out which relevant ingredient has been missed. On the other hand, since Biden did win at the edge, instead of Trump, the model has proven robust with the error steaming from my rough estimate of respective proportions of inflexibles and prejudice effects. In my talk, I will first demonstrate that, although clear, Biden victory has been tight. Then, I will discuss what went wrong and what has been robust in the making of the prediction of a second Trump victory.


S. Galam, Will Trump win again in the 2020 election? An answer from a sociophysics model, Physica A 570 (2021) 125835

Primary author

Serge Galam (CEVIPOF, SciencesPo and CNRS)

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